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Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

An Interactive 10-Day Training Course

Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

A Financial-Economics Approach to Forecasting

NASBA
Classroom Schedule
Date Venue Fees
23 Feb - 06 Mar 2026 Dubai $ 11,900
25 May - 05 Jun 2026 London $ 11,900
07 - 18 Sep 2026 London $ 11,900
16 - 27 Nov 2026 Houston $ 15,900
15 - 26 Mar 2027 Dubai $ 11,900
Online Schedule
Date Venue Fees
07 - 18 Sep 2026 Online $ 7,900

Full outline shall be posted soon.

For more Enquires, please call +971 44 250 700 or email us at: info@glomacs.sa

Course Outline
Day 1

The Current State of the Equity & Commodity Markets

  • Measuring Nervousness / Uncertainty of Equity and Commodity Markets
  • The Crude-Oil Markets: Level and Slope of Crude-Oil Futures Markets, Impact of Economic, Financial and Geopolitical Events on Implied Volatilities in the Crude-Oil Market
  • Impact of Seasonality on Global NatGas Markets
  • Future Inflation Rates
  • The Refining Spread and Retail Gasoline Prices
  • The Domestic NatGas Market: The Impact of Seasonality
  • The March / April 2007 Futures Contract
Day 2

A Primer on the Interest-Rate Markets

  • Financial Markets’ “Message from Markets”, Interpret bond-market moves in conjunction with those in equity markets
  • Empirical Regularities of Global Fixed Income Markets
  • Understanding the Fundamentals of Bond Valuation
  • Eurodollar Futures and Interest Rate Swaps
  • Duration and Convexity: Hedging Interest Rate Exposure
  • Interest-Rate Volatility
  • Forecasting Future Interest Rates Using
    • A Financial-economics Approach
    • Practitioners' Approaches
Day 3

Overview of Statistical Concepts

  • Basic Statistical Concepts: Average and Volatility, Stationarity of Time Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Using Solver to Solve Constrained Optimization Problems
Day 4

Forward, Futures and Swap Contracts in Energy Markets

  • Fundamentals of Forwards and Futures Contracts: Definition, Payoff Diagram, Pricing by Arbitrage
  • Forward / Futures Prices and Forecast Prices
  • Commodity Swaps
  • The Key Difference between Real-Asset Valuation and Expected Value
Day 5

Part I: Option Pricing

  • Payoffs and Put-Call Parity
  • Black-Scholes Formula
  • Option “Sensitivities” (the “Greeks”): Delta and Gamma
  • The Binomial Model and the Valuation of American-Style Options
  • Real Options in Energy Markets: Power Plants as a Strip of Spark Spread Options, Oil Fields as the Valuation of an Extraction Option
Day 6

Continuation of Day 5

Part I: Option Pricing

Day 7

The Statistics of the Price Processes in Energy Markets

  • Historical Volatility: The Term Structure of Volatility (TSOV)
  • Estimating Volatility from Market Prices of Options in Energy Markets
  • Historical or Implied Vols?
  • Estimating a Mean-Reverting Process
  • Characterizing the Volatility “Surface” Across Time and Strike
  • Jump-Diffusion Process
  • The Need to Extrapolate in Energy Finance: Valuation of Long-Dated Real Assets and Financial Structured Products, Extrapolating Crude-Oil Prices, Extrapolating Natural-Gas Prices, Extrapolating the Term Structure of Volatilities (TSOV), Extrapolating Correlations
Day 8

Forecasting the Prices of Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

  • The “Market Price of Risk”: Estimating a Risk Premium in Finance, and Applying it to Energy Prices
  • How Can Use Regression Analysis to Fortify Our Understanding of Financial Markets’ Perspective on Forecast Prices?
  • Where Can We Observe Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Difference between Futures Prices and Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and How Can We Use it to Forecast Oil Prices?
  • Applying a Jump-Diffusion Model to Oil Futures Options
  • Using the Market Price of Risk to Implement Risk-Management from a Corporate Perspective
Day 9

Energy Derivative Products: The Role of Structuring, Calibration, Valuation and Hedging in Profitable Market-Making

  • Commercial Structured Products
  • Categorizing Derivative Products: Option Collars, Average Options, Spread Options, Swing Options, Weather Derivatives, Commodity-linked Bonds, “Swing” Options, Weather Derivatives
  • Structuring and Valuing Option Collars
  • Structuring and Valuing Average (Asian) Options
  • Example of Calibration:  Using Vanilla Options to Determine the Value of Volatility for Valuation of Average Options
  • Non-Commercial Structured Products
Day 10

Continuation of Day 9

Energy Derivative Products: The Role of Structuring, Calibration, Valuation and Hedging in Profitable Market-Making

Certificates
  • On successful completion of this training course, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates.
  • Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE): In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsors, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance.
Providers and Associations

Endorsed Education Provider

NASBA

In Association With

Options & Brochure

Why Choose Saudi GLOMACS?

Saudi GLOMACS is the official Saudi Arabian division of GLOMACS International (glomacs.com), delivering internationally recognised training courses both within Saudi Arabia and across international locations. Our training courses are aligned with the highest professional and institutional standards, supported by a strong understanding of the professional landscape in Saudi Arabia and access to global expertise.

Saudi GLOMACS enables professionals and organisations to strengthen leadership, capability, and long-term excellence through consistently high-quality learning experiences.

Official Saudi Presence

Official Saudi Arabian division of GLOMACS with established global credibility.

International Benchmarks

Internationally benchmarked training courses aligned with professional best practices.

Trusted Across Sectors

Trusted by professionals and institutions across public and private sectors.

Flexible Delivery

Training courses delivered within Saudi Arabia and across international locations.

Global Standards, Local Relevance

All Saudi GLOMACS training courses are developed in line with internationally recognised standards while remaining relevant to the professional expectations and working environments in Saudi Arabia.

This approach ensures participants benefit from globally benchmarked knowledge that can be applied effectively within Saudi-based roles, regional responsibilities, and international professional contexts.

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No. Saudi GLOMACS delivers courses in Saudi Arabia and internationally, including delivery across Europe and Asia. This allows organisations and professionals to access training both locally and abroad.

No. While governance and leadership are part of the portfolio, Saudi GLOMACS delivers training across the entire business and professional lifecycle, including administrative, technical, legal, regulatory, and sector-specific training.

Yes. Saudi GLOMACS designs and delivers bespoke in-house training tailored to organisational objectives, sector requirements, and workforce needs. Training can be delivered in Saudi Arabia or internationally, depending on requirements.

Courses delivered in Saudi Arabia are adapted to reflect local regulatory frameworks, organisational structures, sector conditions, and professional expectations. This ensures training is relevant, practical, and aligned with Saudi workplace realities.

GLOMACS has been delivering professional training for over thirty years, with courses delivered across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and other international markets.

Saudi GLOMACS combines three decades of global training experience with a clear focus on Saudi market relevance. This allows it to deliver training that is both internationally credible and locally applicable, across a broader range of disciplines than niche or single-focus providers.

Saudi GLOMACS is a Saudi-based professional training provider delivering courses tailored to the Saudi market and applicable internationally. It operates within the global GLOMACS framework and draws on more than three decades of international training experience.

Saudi GLOMACS offers professional training across a wide range of disciplines, including administration, leadership and management, governance and regulation, law, oil and gas, energy, engineering, finance, digital technologies, and sector-specific specialisations.

Training supports professionals across all career stages, from operational roles to specialist and senior responsibilities.

Participants include professionals from public sector, semi-government, and private sector organisations, across a wide range of roles and industries. Attendees range from administrative and operational professionals to technical specialists, managers, and senior decision-makers.

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